Forecasting is always a question of insightful reading of what is going on in any given industry, as well as a good instinct on how the public responds to what is going on. Therefore to predict the top fragrance trends to watch in 2026, I need to point out what we noticed in 2025 first. And then give you my predictions. Let's see at the end of this year whether I was right or wrong.
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What we saw in 2025
Brands are finally shaking off the depression spirit of the pandemic era, even though it was the one that increased the desire for perfume in the first place... as a test of Covid's loss of smell. The public is somewhat tired of the safe trend for sweet bases with thick and powerful amber-woods and oud bases (replicating agarwood resin) intended to denote luxury and are now turning to well-being and personal satisfaction effects. In 2025, many things were debunked about the purchase, manufacture and copying by Arabs (the prevalent culture of dupes).
At the same time, we reached an oversaturation in fragrance launches, where hundreds of new releases smelled and looked like so many others, especially in the sweet confectionery olfactory profile.
Fortunately, the perfume industry is working on new molecules, new ideas and a new style of presentation, so that perfume becomes mainly an experience and emotion for GenZ rather than an accessory to show off wealth or status. After all, this is no longer the case on a planet on precarious balance.
Last but not least, it was the year that Givaudan perfumer Quentin Bisch became a mega-star on the perfume channels (taking over from the previous beloved of the perfume community, Francis Kurkdjian, who seems to have disappointed audiences since taking over as permanent perfumer at Dior). His use of Titan-strong molecules produced by Givaudan has changed the entire industry.
Fragrance Trends to Watch in 2026
1. Creamy, milky, and fruity scents
Whether expressed through fruity, woody, or coconut milk notes, lactones (a chemical class of molecules that evoke ripe fruit or summery woods like fig tree) were a defining trend in 2025 and will continue into 2026. Even consumers who aren’t technically familiar with the meaning of the adjective “lactone” have embraced this creamy aesthetic. The movement was sparked by the viral social media buzz that catapulted fragrances like Blanche Bête and Bianco Latte into the spotlight, and the industry has followed suit.
This journey is far from over. Expect a steady stream of creamy sweet compositions throughout the year, often accented with nutty notes — the other big obsession as seen in the frenzy around pistachio and notes of “Dubai chocolate”.
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2. The trend for crunchy effects, in granola and cookies notes
In the field of smell, the play of textures is starting to dominate, moving from the salty trend of last year and the year before to olfactory impressions reminiscent of crunchy cookies, baked oats and popcorn. I remind you that popcorn was an innovation introduced by the late Miss Dior Cherie two decades ago!
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We saw at the same time a multifaceted spectrum of vanilla marrying with the crunchy textures: dark, amber or on the contrary woody with a delicate taste of nuts or milk that married with the style that dominates in candles, and all this surfacing in refined fruity-floral fragrances in posh brands. The crunchy effects are evident already in Crush Akro (which recreates in the form of a fragrance the delicacy of lychee macarons) and Miutine by Miu Miu (like sponge cake with pieces of strawberry interspaced).
The nostalgia of childish desserts and olfactory effects recodes the low-priced and accessible style now at a high price, but more vexingly claims to be considered high culture. Niche has become as uniform and conformist as mainstream, at places, which will outdo its purpose and come at breaking point.
3. Freshness is back!
Perhaps we are tired of the monothematic prevalence of so-called gourmand perfumes, sweet with references to desserts, or of boozy, alcoholic perfumes, with references to spirits, rum and aged cognacs and whiskeys. After wearing, with true mania of overspraying I might add and with a certain aspirational desire of belonging, well-known brands of the central luxury department stores (Kilian, Xerjoff, Marly, Tom Ford Private Line), the public has finally overcome the obsession. People are tentatively revisiting the fresher compositions that recall the 1990s. Or even earlier, the chic fresh colognes of the glorious 60s and 70s. Hereby we can cite the wonderful Acqua di Parma Buongiorno or Le Labo Eucalyptus 20 that resembles a living tree full of juices and aromatic woodies which remain lighter in feeling.
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But freshness also takes on the shades of the earth after a storm, with fragrances that give the effect of petrichor and rainy morning: for example the wonderful and pioneering (from 2015), but with a tongue-twister name, Hermann à mes Côtés me Paraissait une Ombre from the previously iconoclastic French Etat Libre d’ Orange. Reminiscent of the city after a heavy rainstorm. We will see more such fragrances, often Asian (see trend #5)
4. The integration of Artificial Intelligence in the production and composition of fragrances
Perfumery has surpassed itself in the way it captures odors, moving away from the smell of a single object or plant to embrace fragrances that function as sensory translations of an entire field or to give effects that aspire to recreate space, time or completely abstract concepts.
The brand Paco Rabanne pioneered with Phantom but many are following in its footsteps, so we have not seen much yet.
5. The rise of Asian and especially Chinese brands
After perfumery hailing from or replicating the aura of the Middle East, we observe in the West a tsunami of new brands coming from Japan, South Korea, China, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam with a minimalist profile: Zhufu, itā, ChuJian, cent.pm, to Define, Fukudo…
Possibly as revenge for Trump’s infamous tariffs, the new Asian brands usually offer affordable prices on differentiated olfactory profiles that renew traditional elements. Like a tea ceremony, with notes of matcha but also calligraphy ink, rice and fine incense. They project the feeling of spa and tranquillity that we usually identify with Eastern philosophies, so it's fitting. Will they eventually displace the milky, thick creamy and sweet aromas of desserts? It remains to be seen.
Let's bookmark this post and review it anew at the end of the year. Marketeers, take note in the meantime if you want to promote your fragrance and mail me for more if interested in working together.
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