Smells Like 2010: Hits & Flops in Perfume

In an article in the New York Times, penned by Catherine Saint Louis, we learn which fragrances made it and which tanked last year, according to the NPD Group market research team. Oddly enough the text reads like a nicely placed endorsement instead of a critical commentary one would expect on the results, but of course the scope of the article never was to criticize, merely to report. Additionally, it's mentioned that "Final annual tallies from NPD won’t be available until later this month". So why the rush dear?

The most important feature is this quote however:

"Ms. Grant dared to hope for “at least a flat year,” which would be an improvement, she said, considering that “fragrance has pretty much been in decline, except for a few years with celebrity fragrances” since 2001."

So which were the big sellers? In the mainstream circuit, they were:

Gucci Guilty

Chanel Chance Eau Tendre

Bleu de Chanel (apparently the biggest men's premiere in Bloomingdale's ever)

Ralph Lauren Big Pony collection

May I say yawn, at this point...

The celebrity fragrances were many (as usual, especially in view of the above quote) but apparently they didn't do that well, Beyonce's Heat mentioned in those. It's a bit contradictory to what was circulated at the moment of launch, when Heat was quoted as being a "fly off the shelves" item that was unprecedented. Hmmm.....

The other interesting thing that begs for commentary is Jennifer Aniston's celebrity perfume, initially hailed as Lola Vie (LOL@vie, if you're slow on the up-taking) and then changed into simply Aniston . Everyone is reporting that it didn't sell well, it flopped etc. Now, where's the catch? It's definitely not a reflection on Jennifer's popularity which remains as strong as ever. It's simple really: Aniston, the fragrance, was launched as an exclusive at Harrod's in the UK who didn't ship outside the country, thus effectively cutting off the core audience of Jennifer (America) from access to the product that would first and foremost appeal to them! The rationale behind such a distribution move remains to be seen, as Aniston did make it all the way to London to appear to the launch, hugging the bottle in rapture, apparently oblivious to what would ensue.

Best-selling fragrances in the niche sector (according to Barney's and Aedes)?

Byredo M/Ink

Bois 1920 Classic

Santa Maria Novella Melograno

Gendarme original cologne

Aedes de Venustas by L'Artisan

F.Malle Portrait of a Lady

Somehow, I don't think the rather iconoclastic minerals & musks M/Ink or the intricately complex Aedes de Venustas fragrance can be viewed in the same light as Gendarme, or Portrait of a Lady, which cater to more traditional tastes. But this is what has been reported all the same. Melograno is such an old niche mainstay that I can't but think these are repeat buyers.

As to trands to look out for in fragrance for 2011? The continuation of oud in the mainstream, more flankers coming up (one for Marc Jacob's Daisy for sure), the resurgence of powder (according to Karen Dubin of Sniffapalooza and her love of...Love, Chloé) and the return of ThreeASFOUR by Colette (a concept perfume).

For a glimpse on what we thought as best in 2010, please refer to our 2010 Best & Worst list.